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Wayne Staats | vipkrikya888.com | December 10, 2025

Here are the most popular lower seeds, upset picks in the College Football Playoff

College Football Playoff bracket reactions after the final reveal

With the expansion of the College Football Playoff era, that means there are hopes of seeing Cinderella-type runs we're used to getting during March Madness.

Sure, the bracket is only 12 teams for the CFP compared with 68 for basketball, but there are still options for bracket pickers when it comes to going with lower-seeded teams in vipkrikya888.com's College Football Bracket Challenge Game.

Also, though getting a first round bye means you have to win only three games to win the national title, the first year of the 12-team field did see No. 8 Ohio State roll to the crown with four wins. That showed while seeding is important, it's not everything. So don't overlook the lower seeds.

Here are the most popular picks out of the eight non-bye teams for each round, according to the data from out College Football Bracket Challenge Game:

First round picks

Lower seed First round pick % percentage Opponent
No. 9 Alabama 49.76 No. 8 Oklahoma
No. 10 Miami (Fla.) 28.88 No. 7 Texas A&M
No. 11 Tulane 13.36 No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 12 James Madison 7.10 No. 5 Oregon

MAKE YOUR PICKS: Fill out your brackets in the College Football Bracket Challenge Game

A No. 9 beating a No. 8 wouldn't be jaw-dropping during the basketball tournament, but in the CFP, that does mean a team is winning on the road. And we saw how important it was to play at home last year — the four home teams went 4-0 and won by an average of 19.25 points. It's a sample size of only one year, however, so we'll see if any of the visiting teams in 2025 can come through this season. Of the group this time, No. 9 Alabama is the clear favorite pick, beating No. 8 Oklahoma on almost half of the CFBCG brackets.

Quarterfinal picks

non-Bye seed % Picked to Advance
No. 5 Oregon 39.59
No. 7 Texas A&M 14.79
No. 9 Alabama 13.22
No. 6 Ole Miss 12.56
No. 8 Oklahoma 7.45
No. 10 Miami (Fla.) 6.23
No. 11 Tulane 2.85
No. 12 James Madison 2.69

Not surprisingly, No. 5 Oregon is the top pick from the non-bye teams by users filling out their brackets through the quarterfinals. The Ducks are going to the semifinals on almost 40 percent of brackets, well more than double the second-highest team, No. 7 Texas A&M. That means the Aggies are a little more popular than Ole Miss, which is seeded one spot higher.

Semifinal picks

non-Bye seed % Picked to Advance
No. 5 Oregon 11.89
No. 8 Alabama 7.29
No. 7 Texas A&M 6.28
No. 6 Ole Miss 3.95
No. 9 Oklahoma 3.39
No. 10 Miami (Fla.) 2.65
No. 11 Tulane 1.71
No. 12 James Madison 1.66

Yet again, No. 5 Oregon is the go-to option here, with the Ducks reaching the title game on 11.89 percent of brackets. However, now it's No. 8 Alabama coming in second, going to the championship on 7.29 percent of entries.

For those thinking of a major Cinderella run — let's say the three double-digit seeds of No. 10 Miami (Fla.), No. 11 Tulane and No. 12 James Madison represent Cinderella here — 6.02 percent have one of the three lowest seeds making it to Miami Gardens for the CFP championship game.

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